May the Best Man Win

With the election just over 2 weeks away, I figured I’d give you guys a bonus memo and breakdown different scenarios that could lead to either a Trump or Harris win.

Without further ado, let’s get right into it.

AZ Polling

CBS/YouGov: 51 to 48 (Trump)

NYT (New York Times): 51 to 46 (Trump)

WSJ (Wall Street Journal): 47 to 45 (Harris)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Trump up 1.6

GA Polling

Quinnipiac: 52 to 45 (Trump)

Emerson: 49 to 48 (Trump)

WSJ: 46 to 45 (Harris)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Trump up 1.8

NC Polling

Quinnipiac: 49 to 47 (Harris)

WSJ: 46 to 45 (Trump)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Trump up 0.7

PA Polling

NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena: 50 to 47 Harris

Quinnipiac: 50 to 47 Harris

WSJ: 46 to 45 Trump

Emerson: 49 to 48 Trump

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Trump up 0.4

MI Polling

WSJ: 47 to 45 (Harris)

Emerson: Tie

Quinnipiac: 50 to 47 (Trump)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Harris up 0.6 in 538 polling avg

WI Polling

WSJ: Harris up 1 pt (exact figures unavailable)

Quinnipiac: 48 to 46 (Trump)

Emerson: tie (49 to 49)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Harris up 0.3

NV Polling

WSJ: Trump up 5 pts (exact figures unavailable)

Emerson: 48 to 47 (Harris)

FiveThirtyEight Polling avg: Harris up 0.7

National Polling

National Poll avg: Harris up 1.5 pts

There’s no real surprise here, as Harris is expected to win the popular vote.

Here’s what the electoral map would look like according to the polls:

While the polls are accurate for predicting winners in non-swing states, there is obviously a margin of error to them and the polls in current swing states are too close to jump to any conclusions.

Let’s dive into a couple of different scenarios.

Trump Landslide

Harris Landslide

Most Probable Trump Win

Most Probable Harris Win

My Final Prediction

After spending a few hours cooking up different scenarios and it really comes down to this: whoever wins PA is in a very, very good spot the rest of the way.

While it will be tough for both candidates to win after losing PA, Trump is in a more ideal spot, as if he splits MI & WI and wins NC, GA, and AZ, he’ll be crowned victor. Technically speaking, NC, GA, and AZ are considered swing states, but all three definitely lean a little red.

With the exception of Biden’s miraculous flipping of GA and AZ last year and Obama’s rise to stardom in 2008, those three states have been red every election since 2000.

Kamala, on the other hand, has to win both WI & MI as well as win either NC or GA if she loses PA, which will undoubtedly be a difficult task.

Trump has some good momentum going into election day after performing well on large podcasts like Valuetainment, Flagrant, and NELK Boys. In addition to these platforms, he is set to appear on the greatest podcast known to man, The Joe Rogan Experience.

Conversely, Kamala has seen her previous momentum dissipate, as her interviews with Ben Whitaker on 60 Minutes and Bret Baier on Fox News did not go as planned. This is obviously due to the fact that real questions were asked and it wasn’t softball after softball from Jimmy Kimmel or Alex Cooper.

Kamala is also supposed to appear on JRE, but from a pure strategic standpoint, I don’t think that’s a good idea for her. She’s already proved that confrontational interviews aren’t her strong suit, and Joe Rogan is not the type of guy to let her BS answers fly without pressing back.

While Trump is probably praying that she’s going on JRE, she’s definitely better off reading speeches off of teleprompters in PA, WI, MI, and other swing states and trying to pander to specific groups that will be key for her.

Speaking of specific groups, here are some fascinating graphs that depict electoral outcomes in 2020 if only certain groups were to vote.

With the election still two weeks out, all we can do is speculate and only time will tell who will be crowned the 47th President of the US.

While most pundits exaggerate with the whole “the world is going to end if we lose” rhetoric, this election is massive and could be a huge turning point for conservatism, not only within the US, but globally as well.

Can’t wait for the 5th.

Thanks for reading and until next time.

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