River of Blue Tears

Numbers Don’t Lie

As Trump wrapped up his campaign cycle, he urged his supporters to go vote and make it “too big to rig.” And boy, was it too big to rig indeed.

Despite most people expecting a Trump victory, it was a surprisingly dominating performance from the Don and the Republican Party that included winning every swing state, the electoral college by a wide margin, the popular vote (first time since 2004), the Senate, and most likely the House of Representatives.

With that being said, let’s dive into some numbers.

The combination of a woman being the candidate and the never-ending pandering to women about their “reproductive rights” seemed to guarantee a 60%+ margin for women voting for Kamala. Not only was this threshold not surpassed, but she managed to somehow receive a smaller portion of the female vote than Joe Biden (57% vs 54%).

Contrarily, Trump was able to capture a higher margin (44% vs 42%) of women voters relative to the last election cycle.

The Latino vote for Trump was arguably the deciding factor and stole the show, as a jump from 32% to 45% surprised most pundits. Latino men came in at 54%, as most were able to look past the propaganda of Trump hating “brown” people and seeking to deport any Latino he can get his hands on.

Trump’s ability to flip Miami-Dade county is emblematic of his success with the Latinos.

The black vote was virtually the same as last year, although there was an uptick in the black male vote for Trump, as roughly 20% of black men and 30% of them under the age of 45 casted their vote for Donald.

Additionally, a statistic that doesn’t seem to be getting more news coverage is the support Trump received from Gen Z. Despite receiving 42% of the 18-29 vote (increase from 36% in 2020), Trump defeated Harris 52 to 45 in the 18-24 category.

Maybe Gen Z is a little wiser than people give them credit for…

Another surprising stat was the 79% to 21% margin Harris saw from Jewish voters. Without context, this would align with the typical Jewish supermajority vote for Democratic candidates, but I was personally expecting a tighter margin given Trump’s numerous appearances at large Jewish events, emphasis on keeping Israel safe, the American Jewish Committee running pro-Trump ads, and support from influential Jewish business and political magnates after October 7th with the most notable being Bill Ackman.

This continues the paradoxical trend of the Republican Party being the more “pro-Israel” side yet consistently losing most of the Jewish vote on election night. There are a few potential explanations that can be analyzed in future memos.

In addition to the demographic statistics pointing towards momentum for the Republican Party, there were a few dynamics within the states that did so as well.

Like alluded to earlier, Trump was able to secure every swing state and was authoritative in doing so. Throughout the night, a swing state never even leaned blue according to the NYT Interactive Map.

Georgia and North Carolina started their counts the earliest and was consistently leaning red before eventually being upgraded to likely red and very likely red.

Pennsylvania followed the same trend and essentially secured the victory for Trump.

Michigan and Wisconsin followed suit after PA, and Nevada and Arizona, while still not officially given to Trump according to NYT, will be eventually gifted to Trump.

Even within the states that Harris won, it was clear that the Democratic Party took a step backwards.

Minnesota was labeled as a toss-up state for a few hours after Trump leaped to an unexpectedly early lead.

Kamala’s margin was just 56% to 44% and 57% to 40% in the large Democratic strongholds of New York and California.

57% of the Democratic vote in CA is the fewest since John Kerry in 2004 and 56% in NY is the smallest since Bush in 1992, which was a direct result of 3rd party candidate Ross Perot accumulating roughly 15% of the vote in the state.

Additional Thoughts & Comments

The entire night as the momentum continued to build, it seemed like déjà vu from 2020 all over again, when Trump had solid leads in every swing state only to find them evaporated by the next morning after a set of bizarre circumstances.

Speaking of the 2020 election, Biden receiving north of 80 million votes seemed strange at the time, but now seems even stranger given Harris’ reversion back to the mean of about 68 million votes.

Sure Biden was more coherent while running, campaigned as a moderate, had Trump’s handling of COVID as a strength, and turnout was at a record high at the time due to the pandemic, but 81 million, to put it simply, is a lot of votes. It will definitely take some time before another Democratic candidate receives that many votes.

Another thought that came to my mind is why in the world would Harris pick Walz over Josh Shapiro? Sure, one can make the argument Walz appealed to the common man due to his lack of wealth and resume of being a teacher and football coach.

But simply put, not only is he an odd guy whose personality is not very relatable, not incredibly bright or articulate, and lacking the clear “it factor” needed for politics, but he’s also very progressive and not able to cater to moderates because of it.

Josh Shapiro, on the other hand, is clearly a more competent politician who, most importantly, is the governor of the critical swing state of Pennsylvania.

Sure, some of the young progressives would have been upset for a day or two because he’s Jewish, (given the Israel-Palestine conflict) but they would have forgotten by the next week just like everyone forgot that Kamala is completely incompetent a day after being undemocratically nominated.

Additionally, the Democratic Party line of “we respect Palestinians but Israel has the right to defend itself” that was repeated by Harris and Walz could have easily been repeated by Shapiro as well.

The campaign overall was a dud and resulted in arguably the most embarrassing election night for the Democratic Party in recent history.

Like mentioned before, a loss in every swing state, the EC, and both chambers of Congress should put a halt to Democrats calling Latino men racist for one second and take some time to self-reflect and analyze where they went wrong.

The clearest miscalculation was the importance of the abortion question. With Harris being a woman and the recent Dobbs case, it seemed like a slam dunk to complain about “reproductive rights” constantly, but it was obviously a losing strategy.

Contrary to the Democratic platform of yelling about abortion and occasionally talking about economy, Trump took a more holistic approach and covered a variety of topics from the economy to immigration to foreign policy.

Trump also took a more grassroots approach, appearing on large podcasts like Theo Von, The All-in Pod, Adin Ross, Flagrant with Andrew Schulz, Valuetainment with PBD, and most importantly, The Joe Rogan Experience.

Not only do these platforms now reach a larger audience than traditional mainstream media sources, but the long-format nature of these interviews allow voters to get a better understanding of politicians’ character and policies. This is contrasted with a 15 minute, chopped up interview in which most people understand are mostly scripted and inorganic.

Additionally, Trump was able to put together a superstar team of RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Charlie Kirk, and most importantly, Elon Musk to campaign for him and win over the hearts and minds of independent voters.

The left, on the other hand, over relied on their usual A-list suspects like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion, Usher, and more to simply post on their Instagram or make a quick statement that they were supporting Kamala. This obviously didn’t do much, not only because these people are clearly out of touch with everyday voters, but also because it was priced into the market that these types of characters would endorse her.

Overall, both Trump and his team simply orchestrated a better campaign strategy and were handsomely rewarded because of it.

Will Trump be able to drain the swamp, deport every illegal, prevent them from crossing, make homes as affordable as they were 30 years ago, increase wages while deflating prices, and institute world peace?

No, obviously not.

But he will make strides in all of these categories that will most likely improve the quality of life for most citizens.

How effective he will be at this inevitably comes down to his appointments. Trump consistently expresses regrets about his previous appointments, proclaiming he was “a New York guy, not a Washington guy,” emphasizing his point that he was an outsider to the political scene and had to rely on other people’s advice.

This time around, he will have no excuse. If he fills his most important Cabinet positions with a bunch of traitorous RINOs like he did last time, then he will have only himself to blame.

However, we will worry about that at a later time. For now, we celebrate.

Thanks for reading and until next time.

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